Speculation on the results of the 2019 general elections has already begun. There is a discomfort in the ruling BJP leadership. We’ll tell you why. It is learnt that the patriarchal RSS has undertaken an internal survey of all parliamentary constituencies. And, the top leadership was shocked to receive the data from the psephologist, who has predicted that BJP may not have more than 160-180 parliamentary seats in 2019 at present. There is another theory that hinges on whether the BJP loses the upcoming assembly elections in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Mizoram. The detractors of Prime Minister Narendra Modi are waiting for that day to attack. If BJP loses the next round of assembly elections, then the onslaught will be against Party President Amit Shah. Insiders reveal that it is yet to be seen when Narendra Modi and Amit Shah will hold the assembly elections. Observers disclosed that there may be slight postponement of the four state elections and preponement of parliamentary elections. The interesting part of the story is what will happen if the BJP gets only 160-180 seats in 2019. First, Amit Shah will have to go as party president and a new BJP head will have to be selected by the RSS. In all probability, in the above given scenario Narendra Modi would have to pave the way for a new incumbent if allies are not ready to move ahead with him as the PM. Who will be the new incumbent? It will depend on the allies and the RSS. Among the allies, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar in all likelihood will jump in the fray and claim the post. He has good relations with most of the leaders. Indications of such a move are already visible with the election of JDU’s Harivansh Narain Singh as Deputy Chairman of the Rajya Sabha.
Vol. 12, Issue 5, August 2018